Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
