A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
